Critical minerals disruption scenario analysis

ADI developed disruption scenarios for priority critical minerals covering access risk, price volatility, and cost pass‑through. Scenario probability and impact were evaluated using policy signals, historical precedents, and supply concentration indicators. Trade‑offs between near‑term mitigation and longer‑term structural options were assessed.

The client

Integrated energy company

The situation

Exposure to policy‑driven supply disruptions

ADI’s contributions

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Scenario construction

ADI built structured access and price disruption scenarios.

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Probability assessment

Likelihood was evaluated using policy and market indicators.

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Mitigation pathways

Diversification and substitution options were assessed.

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Leading signposts

Early warning indicators were defined for monitoring.

Key outcomes

  • Informed mitigation pathways and monitoring priorities
Client Results
ADI utilizes a data-driven process. They use primary and secondary research to verify data, which made our decision-making much easier.
David Austgen CEO, Earth Energy Renewables

Industry experience

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Critical minerals supply risk assessment

ADI assessed supply‑chain exposure by mapping industrial materials to underlying critical minerals using asset‑level mining and refining data. Geographic concentration, fungibility, and business consequence were applied to narrow priority risks. The analysis addressed constraints on substitution and short‑term mitigation under geopolitical uncertainty. The client Integrated energy company The situation Limited visibility into mineral supply exposure […]

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