ADI developed disruption scenarios for priority critical minerals covering access risk, price volatility, and cost pass‑through. Scenario probability and impact were evaluated using policy signals, historical precedents, and supply concentration indicators. Trade‑offs between near‑term mitigation and longer‑term structural options were assessed.
The client
Integrated energy company
The situation
Exposure to policy‑driven supply disruptions
ADI’s contributions
Scenario construction
ADI built structured access and price disruption scenarios.
Probability assessment
Likelihood was evaluated using policy and market indicators.
Mitigation pathways
Diversification and substitution options were assessed.
Leading signposts
Early warning indicators were defined for monitoring.
Key outcomes
- Informed mitigation pathways and monitoring priorities
More insights
Grid realities: Power emissions are up
U.S. power sector CO₂ emissions rose 4% in 2025 based on the latest findings from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This increase was driven by a 3% increase in net electric power generation, including a substantial 13% increase in coal-fired generation. More importantly, this increase points to a growing challenge facing the U.S. power […]
Balancing global LAO oversupply and supply chain resilience
Recent disruptions in the Middle East—including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Shell’s Pearl GTL facility in Qatar—have significantly tightened global supplies of Group III and Group III+ base oils, the primary feedstocks used in synthetic lubricants. At the same time, substantial capacity additions from LAO producers in Asia and […]
Global linear alpha olefins (LAO) market assessment
ADI Analytics launched a multi-client study on the global LAO market, covering the full C4-C20+ value chain. This study will help producers, investors, technology licensors, and strategic stakeholders navigate the evolving landscape. Below are the key questions addressed in the study: We welcome you to join this study. As a subscriber, you’ll have multiple options to […]