Refiners are targeting export markets and integration with petrochemicals as electric vehicle adoption and decarbonization mandates weaken traditional long-term liquid fuel demand.
Refinery margins are squeezed by rising operational costs, strict Scope 1-3 emissions regulations, and shifting product demand toward sustainable aviation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks. ADI Analytics supports refiners across markets, assets, technologies, and transactions to maximize yields, integrate petrochemicals, and execute energy transition strategies.
What keeps refining and fuels leaders up at night
Capital and operational costs continue to rise driven by increasingly stringent environmental regulations, fuel quality mandates, and mandatory emissions management programs. Facility operators must invest heavily in cleaner technologies and emissions reduction systems just to maintain license to operate.
Commercial risk is accelerating as electric vehicles, alternative fuels, and changing global product demand disrupt traditional gasoline and diesel markets. To protect overall margins, refiners must optimize yields toward high-value products, integrate petrochemical capacity, and develop new export outlets.
Regulatory expansion through mechanisms like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) forces refiners to pivot toward complex bio-feedstocks. Evaluating carbon capture, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel pathways requires massive capital allocation against evolving policy frameworks.
Long-term asset viability depends on managing these compounding operational, market, and regulatory shifts simultaneously. Failure to adapt product slates, lower carbon intensity, or rationalize footprint risks permanent margin erosion and stranded assets.
Who we are
Refining and fuels advisory, built on 15+ years and 1,000+ projects. Our team evaluates refinery configurations, renewable fuel integration, unit operations, and global export markets across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
What clients engage us to do
Forecast fuel demand and regional pricing
We deliver short- and long-term supply, demand, and price forecasts for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and refined products. Our work includes regional crack spread modeling, product mix optimization, competitive strategy, and crude oil supply assessments.
Formulate decarbonization and energy transition strategies
Work includes technical and commercial evaluations of carbon capture, utilization, and storage implementation, alternative feedstocks, and electric vehicle market impacts. Engagements guide the integration of renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel.
Conduct asset valuation and transaction due diligence
We support refinery acquisitions, divestitures, and capital allocation through target scouting, asset valuations, and technical and commercial due diligence. Analyses cover unit outage forecasting, market margins, and multi-asset integration scenarios.
Execute strategic transformation and technology innovation
We advise leadership teams on business model evolution, digital transformation initiatives like Industry 4.0 and artificial intelligence, and R&D strategies. Our analyses assist refiners in evaluating and scaling advanced refining technologies and novel chemical pathways.
Navigate regulatory compliance and emissions reporting
We provide detailed advisory on environmental regulations, fuel quality standards like low-sulfur mandates, and Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions management. Work includes regulatory impact assessments to ensure compliance while minimizing compliance costs.
Optimize refinery operations and supply chain logistics
Engagements focus on unit yield optimization, turnaround management, supply chain risk mitigation, and crude oil procurement strategies. We analyze refined product distribution networks to streamline operations and protect operating margins across facilities.
Trusted by REFINERS around the world
For organizations seeking rapid access to market intelligence, ADI offers a suite of multi-client studies covering emerging technologies, market outlooks, competitive landscapes, and investment opportunities. Relevant studies include: Future of Jet & Sustainable Aviation Fuel and U.S. Refined Product Exports to Latin America.
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