ADI assessed the cost competitiveness of alkaline, proton exchange membrane (PEM), and solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) electrolyzers, focusing on the capex variations globally. The work detailed the cost outlook of stack components like bipolar plates and catalyst-coated membranes over a 10-year period. Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) modeling was used to demonstrate variations in capex in North America, Europe, and China.
The client
Global investment firm
The situation
Competitive uncertainty regarding the long-term cost dominance of Chinese alkaline electrolyzers versus Western technology.
ADI’s contributions
Granular component breakdown
Modeled learning rates for stacks and balance-of-plant (BOP) systems to identify which components drive future cost cuts.
Regional capability analysis
Evaluated the Chinese supply chain for critical minerals like iridium and nickel to assess long-term cost sustainability.
Primary expert networking
Leveraged 15 interviews with stakeholders in China and Europe to validate real-world stack lives and efficiency gaps.
LCOH scenario modeling
Compared LCOH across multiple configurations to show how electricity prices and efficiency impact total production costs.
Key outcomes
- Decision support for co-opting Chinese manufacturing while maintaining best-in-class Western stack technology and performance.
More insights
Article
EU methane rule delay: A tactical retreat or climate setback?
The European Union (EU) Methane Regulation is known for its strict methane emissions transparency requirements for foreign oil and gas imports, and has driven methane emissions monitoring and reporting efforts, especially among oil and gas players serving the EU market. Under Article 28 of the EU Methane Regulation, importers are required to demonstrate that fossil […]
Article
Notes from the Gas to Grid Summit
Gas-to-grid infrastructure has received limited attention amid rapid growth in data-center power demand. Pipelines, storage, fuel delivery, generation, and grid connections determine when new load can receive reliable power. ADI Analytics and Energy Conference Network launched the inaugural Gas to Grid Summit to examine this part of the value chain. Participants included midstream operators Williams […]
Article
Post-auto growth in lubricants
HF Sinclair plans to separate its Lubricants & Specialties business, retire its 15,600-barrel-per-day Ontario base oil refinery, and replace internal production with long-term supply agreements. Similar portfolio activity is visible across the industry: BP sold a controlling interest in Castrol, Saudi Aramco acquired Valvoline’s global products business, and private-equity-backed distributors continue to add local businesses. […]