Sustainable aviation fuel technology and supply outlook

ADI explored the recovery of global jet fuel demand post-COVID-19. The study analyzed seven ASTM-approved SAF pathways to identify the pathway that will dominate supply and/or offer the greatest decarbonization potential over the long term. Cost analysis was conducted to assess drivers of SAF costs compared to conventional jet fuel.

Venture capital firm

Decision risk associated with the timing of jet fuel demand recovery and the economic viability of SAF production pathways.

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Evaluated the GHG intensity of SAF pathways (HEFA, ATJ, PtL) against conventional jet fuel to determine carbon value.

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Quantified the available waste and advanced feedstocks to assess supply constraints for SAF scaling.

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Detailed the four-tier D4054 approval process and blend limits for seven commercial and pilot-stage SAF technologies.

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Modeled the financial impact of LCFS, RINs, and EU mandates on the breakeven economics of various SAF production routes.

  • Prioritization of feedstock-diverse processes and refiner co-processing to meet emerging regulatory mandates.
Client Results
ADI utilizes a data-driven process. They use primary and secondary research to verify data, which made our decision-making much easier.
David Austgen CEO, Earth Energy Renewables

Industry experience

Sulfur recovery as a service strategy

ADI evaluated the global addressable market for an outsourced sulfur recovery business model, assuming complete operational responsibility for sulfur recovery units (SRUs) and downstream sulfur marketing. The work modeled adoption rates across the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East, specifically quantifying the recurring revenue potential of tapping high fertilizer demand. Analysis focused on the critical […]

Global sulfur recovery unit market assessment

This study analyzed the global demand for Claus, liquid redox, and scavenger units over a five-year period, driven by IMO 2020 marine fuel regulations and fuel demand growth. ADI segmented the global market by region and capacity. The work emphasized the factors that impact growth. The client Global refining technology provider The situation Uncertainty regarding […]

Refiner ESG benchmarking and landscaping

ADI benchmarked the sustainability disclosures of U.S. oil majors and independents to identify competitive gaps in ESG reporting maturity. The study evaluated dimensions such as greenhouse gas emissions, water management, and critical incident risk to determine how refiners are navigating the transition to net-zero. The analysis highlighted that pure-play refining independents often provide more granular […]

Refining turnaround and maintenance due diligence

ADI supported investment due diligence by assessing the market outlook for refinery turnaround (TAR) and maintenance services. Primary research involved interviews with major U.S. Gulf Coast operators to validate job pipelines and post-pandemic labor cost escalations. The work included site-specific unit outage forecasts with regional spending trends and assessing competitive margins. The client Private equity […]

Water technology assessment for refineries

ADI evaluated the water management value chain within U.S. refineries, focusing on sourcing constraints, pre-treatment needs, and wastewater reuse technologies. The assessment benchmarked the lifecycle costs of primary and secondary treatment while identifying technical barriers to advanced membrane and zero liquid discharge systems. The study highlighted the growing water stress in basins and the resulting […]

Valuation of integrated energy and chemicals assets

ADI performed technical and commercial due diligence for an integrated energy and chemicals park, evaluating asset configurations. The valuation involved rigorous DCF modeling of scenarios ranging from lube oil complex rejuvenation to asset shutdowns, factoring in terminal value sensitivities. The assessment specifically addressed market risks associated with Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) oversupply and regional demand recovery […]

Compact hydrogen generator commercialization strategy

This engagement assessed the commercial viability of a compact hydrogen generator (CHG) by benchmarking it against incumbent large-scale SMR and cryogenic liquid hydrogen supply chains. ADI analyzed the trade-offs between capital recovery and sourcing diversity for refiners to address rising hydroprocessing capacity needs. The client Energy technology R&D organization The situation Uncertainty regarding how small-scale […]

Downstream maintenance and capital spend strategy

ADI evaluated the global refining and petrochemical spend to determine market entry strategies for specialty maintenance services and equipment. The assessment addressed regional capacity shifts, specifically the transition from European asset closures to massive integrated complexes in Asia and the Middle East. Strategic planning focused on the trade-offs between routine turnaround services and large-scale modernization […]

Hydrogen market assessment and go-to-market strategy

ADI evaluated global hydrogen demand across high-volume refining and ammonia sectors alongside emerging small-volume applications in semiconductors and glass. The study utilized technical benchmarks for SMR and electrolysis to identify segments where on-site reliability and high purity levels (99.9999%+) justify compact reactor adoption over traditional tube trailer delivery. The client Industrial technology provider The situation […]

Novel bio-oil upgrading and olefin monetization technology scouting

ADI conducted a technical scan of non-hydroprocessing routes for upgrading biomass-derived pyrolysis oil, focusing on solvent extraction and membrane-based fractionation. The assessment identified high-value chemical pathways for light olefin streams, benchmarking potential products like acrylic acid and lube additives against minimum economic scale (MES) requirements. The client Biomass conversion technology developer The situation Uncertainty regarding […]

U.S. refined product export market outlook

ADI forecasted the growth of U.S. fuel exports to Latin America by analyzing regional macroeconomics, vehicle fleet dynamics, and biofuel blending mandates. The study identified structural supply gaps in Latin America and the analysis focused on evaluating the cost-competitiveness of U.S. refiners in meeting stringent new low-sulfur fuel regulations across the region. The client Multi-client […]

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