ADI forecasted the growth of U.S. fuel exports to Latin America by analyzing regional macroeconomics, vehicle fleet dynamics, and biofuel blending mandates. The study identified structural supply gaps in Latin America and the analysis focused on evaluating the cost-competitiveness of U.S. refiners in meeting stringent new low-sulfur fuel regulations across the region.
The client
Multi-client group of U.S. refiners and energy traders
The situation
Identifying high-growth export destinations and infrastructure constraints for gasoline, diesel, and LPG in Latin America.
ADI’s contributions
Macro-economic demand drivers
ADI correlated GDP growth and urbanization with fuel consumption, adjusting for the rising penetration of flex-fuel vehicles.
Refining utilization modeling
Proprietary tracking of refinery maintenance and underinvestment quantified the persistent shortfall in domestic fuel production.
Logistics infrastructure mapping
Analysis of marine terminal and storage projects identified regional import capacity bottlenecks for private companies.
Competitive strategy development
The work recommended investing in local retail and supply chain assets to secure market share against international competitors.
Key outcomes
- Informed regional export strategies by identifying a supply-demand gap expected to double over a 10-year period, favoring U.S. low-sulfur fuels.
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