ADI Analytics partnered with a national oil company to develop a robust suite of biofuel cost and economic models. This collaborative project empowered the client to make strategic biofuel investment decisions with greater confidence.
The client
National oil company
The situation
Biofuel strategy assessment to evaluate investment feasibility and optimize portfolio.
ADI’s contributions
Scenario definition
Our team meticulously defined a range of cases and scenarios encompassing diverse biofuels and renewable fuels. Each scenario was carefully crafted to be evaluated using the most appropriate economic models from our toolkit.
Model development and customization
We went beyond generic solutions. We developed and customized over five unique models specifically designed to assess the defined scenarios. These models incorporated the complexities of various biofuel policy outcomes, ensuring a nuanced understanding of potential impacts.
Policy impact analysis
We simulated the effects of different policy and regulatory landscapes on renewable fuels by running the models under a variety of conditions. This analysis provided the client with valuable insights into how policy changes could influence the economic viability of renewable fuel production.
Uncertainty and risk assessment
Recognizing the inherent uncertainties in the energy sector, we conducted a comprehensive uncertainty and risk analysis. This involved gathering key input data from established literature and consultations with industry experts.
Monte Carlo simulations
To account for the natural fluctuations associated with production costs, product pricing, and policy incentives, we employed Monte Carlo simulations. This robust methodology allowed us to model uncertainties and simulate the costs and economics of various biofuels with greater accuracy.
Key outcomes
- Evaluate the economic feasibility of various biofuel investment opportunities.
- Optimize their biofuel portfolio to align with changing market conditions and policy landscapes.
- Make strategic decisions that ensure their long-term success in the evolving biofuels market.
More insights
Article
Biofuels in a tight 2026–2027 RFS market
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently finalized the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) for 2026 and 2027, establishing the highest blending mandates in the history of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program (see Exhibit 1). The RFS requires oil refiners (“obligated parties”) to blend specific volumes of renewable fuels into the U.S. transportation fuel supply […]
Article
How is SAF faring in 2026 so far?
ADI has published nine editions of our semi-monthly newsletter, SAF Tracker, so far in 2026 covering trends across SAF demand, supply, pricing, technology, feedstocks, investments, and regulations. Stepping back from the cadence of biweekly reporting, we found ourselves asking a broader question: what are the high-level trends shaping the SAF landscape this year? Our analysis […]
SAF Tracker
2026 April SAF Tracker highlights – #83
Developments include SABA selecting Infinium’s Project Atlas for SAF certificate supply, new strategic partnerships such as XCF Global and BGN to scale production and distribution, and technology advancements like Gevo’s ethanol-to-olefins catalysts. Project activity is also expanding globally, with Phelan eFuels advancing an eSAF facility in South Africa and Velocys partnering to develop biomass-to-SAF projects […]