ADI explored the recovery of global jet fuel demand post-COVID-19. The study analyzed seven ASTM-approved SAF pathways, to identify the pathway that will dominate supply and/or offer the greatest decarbonization potential over the long term. Cost analysis was cinducted to assess drivers of SAF costs rcompared to conventional jet fuel.
The client
Venture capital firm
The situation
Decision risk associated with the timing of jet fuel demand recovery and the economic viability of SAF production pathways.
ADI’s contributions
Lifecycle emission analysis
Evaluated the GHG intensity of SAF pathways (HEFA, ATJ, PtL) against conventional jet fuel to determine carbon value.
Feedstock availability modeling
Quantified the available waste and advanced feedstocks to assess supply constraints for SAF scaling.
ASTM approval pathway review
Detailed the four-tier D4054 approval process and blend limits for seven commercial and pilot-stage SAF technologies.
Policy and credit impact analysis
Modeled the financial impact of LCFS, RINs, and EU mandates on the breakeven economics of various SAF production routes.
Key outcomes
- Prioritization of feedstock-diverse processes and refiner co-processing to meet emerging regulatory mandates.
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