ADI evaluated the global lithium-ion battery (LIB) value chain, emphasizing technical and economic requirements for cathodes, anodes, and electrolytes. The analysis contrasts the rapid adoption of LFP chemistries against NCM and emerging sodium-ion alternatives while modeling cost curves across major manufacturing hubs. Operational constraints, including raw material price volatility and grid-scale storage demands, were assessed to guide long-term infrastructure investment.
The client
National investment and infrastructure fund
The situation
Uncertainty regarding the timing of battery chemistry shifts and the competitive viability of domestic LIB material production.
ADI’s contributions
Chemistry-level demand modeling
Modeled demand scenarios for LFP, NCM, and sodium-ion batteries by correlating EV penetration rates with stationary storage needs.
Value chain cost analysis
Developed cost-per-kWh benchmarks for cell components to evaluate the economic trade-offs of localized material sourcing.
Proprietary asset benchmarking
Leveraged a global database to map existing and planned gigafactory capacities and their impact on material supply balances.
Regulatory impact assessment
Analyzed how global trade policies and domestic production incentives shape the competitive landscape for battery minerals.
Key outcomes
- Informed capital prioritization for gigafactory development and identified strategic entry points in the battery recycling and cathode supply chain.
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