ADI built a bottom‑up lithium‑ion battery recycling outlook by modeling installed base growth, chemistry mix, scrap rates, and collection assumptions. Supply availability, black‑mass generation, and refining capacity were stress‑tested against utilization and execution risk. Uncertainty around LFP adoption and recoverable value was explicitly evaluated.
The client
Energy transition investment platform
The situation
Recycling economics unclear under fast‑changing chemistries
ADI’s contributions
Installed base flow modeling
ADI modeled battery volumes by region, application, and chemistry.
Capacity probability weighting
Projects were filtered by FID status and construction progress.
Chemistry risk exposure
Lower value recovery from LFP was quantified.
Expert interview triangulation
Recyclers, OEMs, and refiners validated assumptions.
Key outcomes
- Clarified capacity gaps and long‑term feedstock availability
More insights
Record RFS mandates strain biofuel supplies
The EPA’s recently finalized Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026–2027 raise Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates to record levels, marking a step-change in required blending volumes. This shift increases demand across the system and leaves less buffer between required volumes and available supply, tightening overall market conditions. Key dynamics shaping supply requirements: These dynamics suggest […]
Oil & gas midstream: 2026 mid-year trends and supply chain impacts
The midstream sector in the first half of 2026 is moving at a breakneck pace, driven by a strategic pivot toward “wellhead-to-water” natural gas liquid (NGL) integration, severe high-horsepower compression supply-chain constraints, and a massive power-generation super-cycle spurred by AI data center expansion. Rather than relying on speculative mega-projects, major pipeline operators are maximizing fee-based […]
2026 June SAF Tracker highlights – #87
Here are the latest highlights from ADI’s SAF Tracker: The full newsletter along with archives and databases are available to SAF Tracker subscribers.