ADI developed disruption scenarios for priority critical minerals covering access risk, price volatility, and cost pass‑through. Scenario probability and impact were evaluated using policy signals, historical precedents, and supply concentration indicators. Trade‑offs between near‑term mitigation and longer‑term structural options were assessed.
The client
Integrated energy company
The situation
Exposure to policy‑driven supply disruptions
ADI’s contributions
Scenario construction
ADI built structured access and price disruption scenarios.
Probability assessment
Likelihood was evaluated using policy and market indicators.
Mitigation pathways
Diversification and substitution options were assessed.
Leading signposts
Early warning indicators were defined for monitoring.
Key outcomes
- Informed mitigation pathways and monitoring priorities
More insights
Record RFS mandates strain biofuel supplies
The EPA’s recently finalized Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026–2027 raise Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates to record levels, marking a step-change in required blending volumes. This shift increases demand across the system and leaves less buffer between required volumes and available supply, tightening overall market conditions. Key dynamics shaping supply requirements: These dynamics suggest […]
Oil & gas midstream: 2026 mid-year trends and supply chain impacts
The midstream sector in the first half of 2026 is moving at a breakneck pace, driven by a strategic pivot toward “wellhead-to-water” natural gas liquid (NGL) integration, severe high-horsepower compression supply-chain constraints, and a massive power-generation super-cycle spurred by AI data center expansion. Rather than relying on speculative mega-projects, major pipeline operators are maximizing fee-based […]
2026 June SAF Tracker highlights – #87
Here are the latest highlights from ADI’s SAF Tracker: The full newsletter along with archives and databases are available to SAF Tracker subscribers.