ADI developed disruption scenarios for priority critical minerals covering access risk, price volatility, and cost pass‑through. Scenario probability and impact were evaluated using policy signals, historical precedents, and supply concentration indicators. Trade‑offs between near‑term mitigation and longer‑term structural options were assessed.
The client
Integrated energy company
The situation
Exposure to policy‑driven supply disruptions
ADI’s contributions
Scenario construction
ADI built structured access and price disruption scenarios.
Probability assessment
Likelihood was evaluated using policy and market indicators.
Mitigation pathways
Diversification and substitution options were assessed.
Leading signposts
Early warning indicators were defined for monitoring.
Key outcomes
- Informed mitigation pathways and monitoring priorities
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