Industry: Refining & fuels

In 2026, ADI expects demand growth to drive the midstream sector as opposed to supply growth. At the same time, disciplined capital allocation strategies will reshape how infrastructure is developed, optimized, and valued. Exhibit 1 summarizes our growth expectations in midstream oil and gas, and we share below 10 key insights on what to expect […]

ADI has released its 2026 ADI Global SAF Outlook, outlining the key regulatory, production, and market forces shaping the global sustainable aviation fuel landscape. The outlook highlights increasing fragmentation, constrained supply growth, and rising cost pressures as mandates expand worldwide. 1. Regulatory divergence fragments the global market. The U.S. undergoes a sharp policy reversal in […]

ADI is pleased to announce the release of its 2026 global refining & fuels outlook, which forecasts a global industry navigating tight supply and significant regional divergence. ADI Analytics views 2026 as a “year of two halves”: the first half is expected to benefit from product scarcity and commissioning lags, while the second half will […]

The January 2026 Edition of the ADI Newsletter highlights how ADI drove impact in 2025, supporting clients across oil & gas, energy, and chemicals while helping them navigate complex market challenges. We served the full ecosystem—from operators and private equity investors to OEMs, EPCs, OFSE providers, and startups. Our work spanned the natural gas and […]

Geopolitical developments over the weekend have renewed interest in Venezuela’s oil industry and what they may mean for global oil markets. The long arc of the Venezuelan oil industry is visible in Exhibit 1, where production fell from ~3.5 MMb/d in the 1970s to ~1.1 MMb/d by 2025. Exhibit 1 also shows Venezuelan crude oil […]

The green hydrogen dream is currently facing a difficult reality: electrolysers are expensive to build and operate, and many projects are struggling to secure the high utilization required for a bankable business case, often due to a lack of immediate, large-scale hydrogen demand. These plants have high upfront capital costs, and if they sit idle, the financial […]

Europe became the linchpin of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption after the implementation of the EU’s RefuelEU Aviation regulation and the U.K.’s SAF mandate. According to these regulations, airlines are required to blend at least 2% of SAF in their fuel use starting January 1, 2025. These blending requirements will get stricter with higher targets […]

XCF Global partnered with Impact Jets to boost sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) use in private aviation, while FedEx expanded SAF adoption at key U.S. airports. Aether Fuels and Aster are developing a SAF facility in Singapore, and Eni, PETRONAS, and Euglena began building a biorefinery in Malaysia. Fluor secured a design contract for LanzaJet’s UK […]

The end of federal EV subsidies and a relaxation of CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards are expected to push North American gasoline demand higher than previously anticipated. While fewer EV sales would typically increase gasoline use, the slowdown in CAFE standards appears to be the larger factor. The CAFE standard drives demand upward Our analysis indicates […]

The October 2025 edition of the ADI Newsletter highlighted major trends shaping energy and industrials. At Gastech Milan, discussions with key leaders such as U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum underscored how natural gas and LNG are entering a new phase of sustained growth driven by energy security and rising […]

Global hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and renewable diesel (RD) capacity has expanded rapidly since 2019, led primarily by North America. By 2024, North America accounted for more than 60% of global HVO/RD capacity, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific, with China emerging as a key renewable fuel exporter to the European market. Looking ahead to […]

Last week, South Korea announced its new SAF roadmap after postponing the start of its mandate from 2025 to 2027. Exhibit 1 highlights several key elements, including (1) SAF qualification criteria, (2) SAF blending targets and timelines, (3) compliance requirements and penalties, and (4) policy incentives and support measures. It is a comprehensive approach that […]