Crude oil prices have retreated since the June ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, but gasoline and diesel prices remain significantly above their levels at the start of 2026. While concerns over an immediate supply disruption have eased, renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create uncertainty around global energy flows.
Implications for U.S. refining:
- Retail gasoline and diesel prices have remained elevated despite the drop in crude oil prices, supporting strong margins for U.S. refiners.
- Shifts in global fuel trade flows have created export opportunities for U.S. refiners as buyers seek reliable alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
- As disruptions and security concerns reemerge in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. refiners are well positioned to supply markets seeking alternatives to affected Middle Eastern fuel supplies.
- Continued uncertainty around global fuel trade flows could sustain volatility in refinery margins and export activity through the remainder of the summer.
The disconnect between crude oil and refined product prices highlights how geopolitical disruptions can continue to affect refining markets even after pressure on crude markets begins to ease. As concerns around the Strait of Hormuz resurface, U.S. refiners remain well positioned to benefit from sustained margins and shifting global fuel trade flows.
ADI has been closely following developments in the Middle East alongside evolving conditions in refining markets.
About ADI Analytics
ADI is a prestigious, boutique consulting firm specializing in oil and gas, energy, and chemicals since 2009. We bring deep expertise in a broad range of markets where we support Fortune 500, mid-sized and early-stage companies, and investors with consulting services, research reports, and data and analytics, with the goal of delivering actionable outcomes to help our clients achieve tangible results.
We also host the ADI Forum that brings c-suite executives together for meaningful dialogue and strategic insights across the oil & gas, energy transition, and chemicals value chains. Learn more about the ADI Forum.
Subscribe to our newsletter or contact us to learn more.
