ADI performed a market-focused due diligence of a hydrogen distribution company to evaluate its positioning within the transportation sector in California. The work assessed low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit pricing volatility and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty FCEV trucks compared to battery and diesel alternatives.
The client
Private equity firm
The situation
Client required consulting support to assess the risks of a transaction involving a hydrogen distribution infrastructure company.
ADI’s contributions
Policy driver assessment
ADI inventoried state and federal incentives, deep-diving into CARB regulations and LCFS credit pricing forecasts.
TCO benchmarking
Quantitative analysis of FCEV heavy-duty truck economics against diesel and battery powertrains through 2030.
Supply-demand modeling
Primary research used to forecast hydrogen supply volumes by type (green, blue, grey) and delivery infrastructure needs.
OEM adoption analysis
Evaluation of heavy-duty OEM order books and deployment timelines to validate target company growth projections.
Key outcomes
- Provided a strategic investment roadmap based on policy drivers, FCEV adoption rates, and localized hydrogen supply-cost dynamics.
More insights
2026 June SAF Tracker highlights – #88
Here are the latest highlights from ADI’s SAF Tracker: The full newsletter along with archives and databases are available to SAF Tracker subscribers.
Utility capital projects & 2026 energy trends
Utility capital projects are facing mounting delays and cost pressures in 2026, even as AI-driven demand fuels record capex. Meanwhile, the upstream oil and gas market is stabilizing around a normalizing shale cost curve, bulk liquid storage operators are shifting toward capability-driven growth, and the energy transition is exposing critical minerals bottlenecks that are pushing […]
U.S. refining capacity is gradually consolidating into larger, more complex facilities
U.S. refining capacity shows limited overall growth, but the structure of the system is shifting. Expansions at large, complex refineries are driving changes on the supply side, while smaller plants face cost and operational constraints that are forcing exits. This is steadily concentrating capacity in fewer, more sophisticated facilities. Key drivers capacity consolidation: Geographic concentration […]