ADI evaluated the market for carbon paper gas diffusion layers (GDL) within the rapidly expanding PEM electrolyzer supply chain. The research assessed the technical transition from titanium porous transport layers and modeled the impact of rising current density on future material demand. High and low cases accounted for green hydrogen production targets and announced OEM manufacturing capacities over a 10-year period.
The client
Private equity and materials producer
The situation
A producer required a market size estimate for specialized carbon papers to justify investment in new commercial-scale capacity.
ADI’s contributions
Voice-of-Customer research
Interviews with 35 experts across OEMs and developers confirmed the widespread replacement of titanium with carbon paper.
Analytical market sizing
Scenario modeling for market value over a 10-year period incorporated PEM efficiency, power density asymptotes, and expected price erosion.
OEM landscape mapping
Analysis of announced manufacturing capacity highlighted a potential shortfall in supply relative to national green hydrogen targets.
Adjacent growth identification
Technical analysis of PEM stack goals identified water treatment and gas purification as promising expansion areas for the client.
Key outcomes
- Justification of commercial-scale capacity expansion based on a projected annual growth rate in GDL demand.
More insights
Newsletter: Data center power, ammonia, and biofuel mandates
In the June 2026 edition, AI-driven demand is surging, but constraints in grid capacity, permitting, and equipment supply are reshaping how and where data centers expand. Developers are increasingly embedding power considerations into site selection, shifting toward distributed infrastructure models and prioritizing regions with faster, more reliable access to electricity. As power availability becomes a […]
The growing challenge of industrial R&D
For much of the 20th century, R&D was viewed as a long-term investment in scientific discovery, often insulated from day-to-day operational pressures. Success was measured in patents, breakthrough technologies, and the promise of future growth. Today, that view no longer holds. Across energy, chemicals, and broader industrial sectors, R&D has been reshaped by a combination […]
IMO’s safety guidelines pave the way for ammonia-fueled ships
Ammonia has increasingly emerged as a potential low-carbon marine fuel to support decarbonization in the maritime sector due to its carbon-free combustion profile. However, compared to methanol, ammonia has lagged behind in commercial adoption as a low-carbon marine fuel. This is primarily due to its toxicity, which requires more complex storage and handling systems, as […]