ADI evaluated the market for carbon paper gas diffusion layers (GDL) within the rapidly expanding PEM electrolyzer supply chain. The research assessed the technical transition from titanium porous transport layers and modeled the impact of rising current density on future material demand. High and low cases accounted for green hydrogen production targets and announced OEM manufacturing capacities over a 10-year period.
The client
Private equity and materials producer
The situation
A producer required a market size estimate for specialized carbon papers to justify investment in new commercial-scale capacity.
ADI’s contributions
Voice-of-Customer research
Interviews with 35 experts across OEMs and developers confirmed the widespread replacement of titanium with carbon paper.
Analytical market sizing
Scenario modeling for market value over a 10-year period incorporated PEM efficiency, power density asymptotes, and expected price erosion.
OEM landscape mapping
Analysis of announced manufacturing capacity highlighted a potential shortfall in supply relative to national green hydrogen targets.
Adjacent growth identification
Technical analysis of PEM stack goals identified water treatment and gas purification as promising expansion areas for the client.
Key outcomes
- Justification of commercial-scale capacity expansion based on a projected annual growth rate in GDL demand.
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