ADI developed high-level demand and supply forecasts for liquid hydrogen over a 10-year period, with a focus on mobility and semiconductor applications. The work highlights the ortho-to-para conversion catalyst requirements and the impact of rapid cooling on storage boil-off risks. Demand scenarios were balanced against a database of over 600 low-carbon hydrogen projects to identify timing for liquefaction capacity builds.
The client
Industrial equipment manufacturer
The situation
The client needed to understand the timing of liquid hydrogen demand growth to align catalyst manufacturing capacity expansion.
ADI’s contributions
Policy and regulatory analysis
Review of strategies across 40+ nations identified the IRA and REPowerEU as primary drivers for hydrogen fuel cell adoption.
Application-specific demand modeling
Demand analysis across mobility, semiconductors, and space industries identified mobility as the critical near-term inflection point.
Capacity addition tracking
Leveraging proprietary databases, ADI tracked proposed low-carbon hydrogen projects to forecast plant FIDs.
Supply-demand gap analysis
Comparison of forecasted liquefaction capacity vs. demand highlighted a period of potential oversupply through the late 2020s.
Key outcomes
- Strategic alignment of manufacturing capacity with projected liquefaction plant start-ups in North America and Developed Asia.
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