ADI explored the recovery of global jet fuel demand post-COVID-19. The study analyzed seven ASTM-approved SAF pathways to identify the pathway that will dominate supply and/or offer the greatest decarbonization potential over the long term. Cost analysis was conducted to assess drivers of SAF costs compared to conventional jet fuel.
The client
Venture capital firm
The situation
Decision risk associated with the timing of jet fuel demand recovery and the economic viability of SAF production pathways.
ADI’s contributions
Lifecycle emission analysis
Evaluated the GHG intensity of SAF pathways (HEFA, ATJ, PtL) against conventional jet fuel to determine carbon value.
Feedstock availability modeling
Quantified the available waste and advanced feedstocks to assess supply constraints for SAF scaling.
ASTM approval pathway review
Detailed the four-tier D4054 approval process and blend limits for seven commercial and pilot-stage SAF technologies.
Policy and credit impact analysis
Modeled the financial impact of LCFS, RINs, and EU mandates on the breakeven economics of various SAF production routes.
Key outcomes
- Prioritization of feedstock-diverse processes and refiner co-processing to meet emerging regulatory mandates.
More insights
How will the 2026 mid-term elections impact energy markets?
Democrats won control of the House and the Senate on November 3 and flipped the governorships of Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa. Energy was a central issue in many of these races, particularly the cost of electricity and the growth of data centers. Power prices have risen in many states in recent years. Data […]
Newsletter: Gas prices, Permian bottlenecks, and midstream growth
In the November 2026 edition of the ADI Newsletter, ADI examines the implications of EQT’s acquisition of Range Resources and what the deal could mean for natural gas markets in Appalachia and at the Henry Hub. The newsletter also explores the growing role of oil and gas capabilities in supporting the energy transition, from geothermal […]
Permian’s next bottleneck is basin connectivity
As ADI discussed recently in Trends shaping the U.S. midstream outlook, rising LNG exports, growing power demand from AI data centers, and continued oil and gas production growth are driving a new wave of midstream investment. Much of the industry’s recent focus has been on relieving Permian gas takeaway constraints through projects such as Kinder Morgan’s […]