ADI supported investment due diligence by assessing the market outlook for refinery turnaround (TAR) and maintenance services. Primary research involved interviews with major U.S. Gulf Coast operators to validate job pipelines and post-pandemic labor cost escalations. The work included site-specific unit outage forecasts with regional spending trends and assessing competitive margins.
The client
Private equity firm
The situation
Diligence required validation of a service provider’s revenue forecast against actual refinery outage schedules.
ADI’s contributions
Operator research
Conducted 11 in-depth interviews with refinery managers and planners to understand service provider stickiness.
Forecast validation
Used ADI databases to cross-reference refinery outages with individual unit maintenance cycles for revenue modeling.
Cost impact analysis
Quantified recent labor and material cost increases and their effect on turnaround service billing rates.
Strategic capability audit
Evaluated the competitive perception of digital integration and planning services versus traditional labor-only models.
Key outcomes
- Validated jobs pipeline and service quality perceptions to inform terminal valuation and risk mitigation strategies.
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