ADI Analytics has just updated and published its global gasoline demand forecast, offering a clear perspective on the intricate shifts occurring in the market. While overall oil demand continues to see growth, driven by factors like increased air travel, road mobility, and industrial expansion in non-OECD countries, the long-term outlook for gasoline is characterized by significant regional divergence.
ADI Plus subscribers can access our detailed gasoline demand forecasts by region, providing both short-term outlooks and long-term projections extending up to 2045. Additionally, a PDF summary and data file are available for ADI Plus subscribers based on their access levels.
Regional divergence in demand
A key characteristic of the current market is this regional divergence. Historically a major driver of demand, China now presents a contrasting picture, with domestic gasoline demand showing a decline from its recent peak. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative fuel technologies largely drives this shift. In stark contrast, countries like India are emerging as new engines for global oil demand growth, fueled by expanding personal mobility and vehicle fleets.
North American markets also demonstrate near-term strength, reflecting factors such as favorable employment and evolving work-from-home trends. European markets are showing some modest positive momentum in the near term, with policy changes influencing consumption patterns. More robust growth stories for gasoline demand are seen in emerging markets across Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, driven by factors like population growth, economic diversification, and expanding mobility.
Impact of decarbonization policies and technology
Despite some current growth, the future outlook points to a major shift for gasoline demand, heavily influenced by the growing impact of electric vehicles. The displacement of liquid fuels by EVs is accelerating, leading to a structural decline in transportation fuel demand. Accelerating electrification will drive a peak in light-duty vehicle demand for liquid fuels in the near future, followed by a decline in the coming decades. Various global initiatives support this trend. Governments worldwide are implementing fuel economy standards, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales targets, and incentive programs to drive EV adoption.
For instance, in North America, policies like Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards aim to improve vehicle fuel efficiency, and several states and Canada have set aggressive ZEV sales targets. Similarly, European nations are implementing CO2 emission standards and providing grants for electric vehicle purchases. China also has ambitious fuel consumption standards and ZEV sales targets for new vehicles, supported by provincial subsidies. These policy and regulatory landscapes are crucial in shaping future gasoline demand patterns.
The rest of this article is available to ADI Plus Essential subscribers. Enhanced subscribers also get a downloadable PDF of ADI’s global gasoline demand forecasts segmented by region through 2045. For Enterprise subscribers, an additional data file is also available.
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