Ethane pricing forecast and scenario modeling

ADI Analytics developed ethane pricing forecasts and strategic implications to support a midstream client’s annual planning process.

The client

A midstream oil and gas company seeking to understand ethane price dynamics under various market scenarios.

The situation

The client needed a robust view of ethane supply, demand, and pricing outlooks to inform near- and medium-term planning decisions, including infrastructure utilization and commercial strategy.

ADI’s contributions

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Supply and rejection modeling

Estimated ethane supply and rejection volumes across multiple oil and gas price decks.

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Demand forecasting

Modeled ethane demand through U.S. crackers and export markets under different growth scenarios.

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Cost curve analysis

Assessed the cost of ethane supply based on fractionator capacity utilization.

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Price scenario development

Forecasted ethane pricing under varying commodity price assumptions.

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Strategic planning support

Provided insights and implications for integration into the client’s annual planning workshops.

Key outcomes

  • ADI’s work enabled the client to align its internal forecasts and planning scenarios with market fundamentals and infrastructure constraints.
Customer Results
ADI brings a senior level of technical expertise.
Riley Hagan CEO, Ethanext

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