Global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) prices came under significant pressure in October 2026, with the European SAF premium reportedly falling to a 20-month low. The decline reflects three key factors:
- Weaker near-term demand in the EU: European airlines have reportedly secured sufficient SAF volumes to meet the EU’s 2% blending mandate for the remainder of 2026, reducing near-term SAF demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
- Growing SAF supply across other regions: SAF production capacity is expanding across China and the U.S., with more projects advancing toward construction and operation (see Exhibit 1). As new capacity comes online, increased competition could reshape global trade flows and put further pressure on SAF prices and producer margins.
Exhibit 1. SAF project pipeline by region and development status since 2021
- Delayed SAF policy implementation: Delays and revisions to SAF policies in key markets, including Singapore and Japan, could slow near-term policy-driven demand growth, adding further downward pressure on prices.
In the ninety-fifth edition of ADI’s biweekly SAF newsletter, SAF Tracker, ADI explores what the recent slump in global SAF prices signals for the broader SAF market, its implications for industry players, and how SAF producers can navigate market uncertainty, maintain profitability, and support the industry’s long-term growth.
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