Despite recent geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are likely to retreat to the $60s by the end of 2026. In this brief update, Uday Turaga, CEO of ADI Analytics, outlines the economic, structural, and political forces driving this impending market correction and loosening global supply.
Key highlights
- Slowing global demand: A late-cycle economic cooldown is weakening oil demand faster than expected, particularly across the transport, fuel, and petrochemical sectors.
- The non-OPEC supply surge: The market entered the year heavily oversupplied, and surging production from the US, Brazil, and Guyana is actively offsetting recent geopolitical disruptions.
- Market futures and political caps: Long-dated futures curves show traders are already pricing oil lower. Furthermore, upcoming US midterm elections are intensifying political pressure to curb energy inflation.
Watch the full video below to see how these market dynamics are unfolding or read our blog on oil prices for a deeper dive. You can also access our latest research covering jet fuel margins, helium, and midstream shift from pipes to power platforms.
About ADI Analytics
ADI is a prestigious, boutique consulting firm specializing in oil and gas, energy, and chemicals since 2009. We bring deep expertise in a broad range of markets where we support Fortune 500, mid-sized and early-stage companies, and investors with consulting services, research reports, and data and analytics, with the goal of delivering actionable outcomes to help our clients achieve tangible results.
We also host the ADI Forum that brings c-suite executives together for meaningful dialogue and strategic insights across the oil & gas, energy transition, and chemicals value chains. Learn more about the ADI Forum.
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