ADI has released its 2026 ADI Global SAF Outlook, outlining the key regulatory, production, and market forces shaping the global sustainable aviation fuel landscape. The outlook highlights increasing fragmentation, constrained supply growth, and rising cost pressures as mandates expand worldwide.
1. Regulatory divergence fragments the global market.
The U.S. undergoes a sharp policy reversal in 2026 as the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit for SAF declines from $1.75 to $1.00 per gallon effective January 1, 2026, undermining the commercial viability of voluntary uplift. In contrast, the EU maintains its ReFuelEU Aviation mandate at a 2% SAF blend, while Singapore and Thailand each enforce a 1% SAF blending mandate beginning in 2026.
2. SAF production landscape is dominated by five key producers amid project cancelations.
The SAF producer landscape is concentrated around five incumbents including Neste, Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling), Phillips 66, Calumet, and World Energy, although World Energy faces mounting financial pressure. Key cancelations in 2025 include Shell cancelling its Rotterdam biofuels project, BP abandoning its biofuels unit at the same site, and Air Products exiting its U.S. JV with World Energy.
Exhibit 1: Regional summary of SAF markets and trends in 2026.
3. Operational capacity reaches critical mass but encounters feedstock constraints.
Phillips 66 operates the fully converted Rodeo facility Calumet advances its “MaxSAF 150” expansion. Despite capacity growth, a balanced global market in 2025 is shifting into a supply deficit in 2026 as European and Asian mandates ramp up in parallel.
4. HEFA pathway dominance approaches a physical ceiling.
HEFA remains the only fully commercial pathway, accounting for majority of announced SAF capacity through 2030. Structural limits emerge as rising SAF demand drives UCO prices higher, forcing SAF and HVO/RD producers into intensifying competition for constrained waste-based feedstocks.
5. Alcohol-to-Jet emerges as the primary diversification vector.
HEFA remains the cheapest SAF production pathway, but ATJ comes close second while also being positioned to leverage the global abundance of ethanol to bypass lipid constraints of HEFA. LanzaJet is operating its Freedom Pines facility at commercial scale in 2026 while Gevo is targeting a mid-2026 FID for its ATJ 30 plant.
6. Pricing premiums persist at structurally elevated levels.
Although SAF price premiums retreat from the 2020 peak of 3.9x, they remain elevated globally in early 2026. U.S. SAF pricing implies a 4x–6x multiple to jet fuel.
7. SAF price premiums may increasingly be paid by passengers via fees and other cost increases mandated by governments.
Voluntary SAF offtake commitments continue to weaken, forcing regulators to implement cost distribution mechanisms. For instance, Singapore introduces a SAF levy in 2026, charging economy passengers between S$1 (regional) and S$10.40 (long haul) to fund the price differential.
8. Geopolitical fragmentation reshapes feedstock trade flows.
U.S.–China trade tensions create volatility in freight planning and cost predictability, while China’s potential approval of finished SAF exports threatens to restructure global trade flows.
9. EU mandate enforcement tightens the supply vice.
The EU eliminates all free aviation emissions allowances under the EU ETS in 2026, following a reduction to 50% in 2025. Enforcement intensifies as suppliers failing to meet SAF blending mandates incur penalties equal to twice the SAF–fossil jet price differential while remaining obligated to deliver the shortfall in the subsequent year.
10. Book-and-claim becomes core market infrastructure.
Persistent supply chain constraints institutionalize book-and-claim systems in 2026, decoupling environmental attributes from physical fuel delivery. Logistics providers such as DB Schenker purchase SAF via book-and-claim, enabling demand growth even as physical supply remains insufficient, underscored by Delta Air Lines’ acknowledgement that global SAF output cannot satisfy even a week of total demand.
The 2026 ADI Global SAF Outlook shows a market entering a structurally tight phase, marked by limited diversification, elevated pricing, and complex policy dynamics. Success will depend on pragmatic regulation, scalable technologies, and coordinated efforts to bridge the gap between mandates and available supply. We invite you to join us at the ADI Forum on January 28 in Houston where we will discuss these findings in greater depth with a panel of executive perspectives.
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