ADI Analytics has just published our global diesel demand forecast. While the long-term outlook for gasoline is characterized by significant regional divergence, it is clear that diesel is here to stay. After a period of relative stagnation since 2015, global diesel demand is projected to grow well through 2045. This resilient growth trajectory, faster than the pace over the past decade, is important for us in the industry to understand.
ADI Plus subscribers can access our detailed diesel demand forecasts by region, providing both short-term outlooks and long-term projections extending up to 2045. Additionally, a PDF summary and data file are available for ADI Plus subscribers based on their access levels.
Drivers of diesel demand
The forces shaping global diesel demand are a complex interplay of economic growth, infrastructure development, regulatory pressures, and the adoption of alternative fuels. Understanding these drivers is key to anticipating future trends.
Economic and industrial activity: The bedrock of demand
A primary driver for diesel demand remains the fundamental need for cargo and freight transport in developed economies. In emerging economies, agricultural and industrial growth are becoming increasingly critical. This includes robust economic expansion, manufacturing activity, and significant infrastructure development, particularly in regions like India and Southeast Asia.
The construction sector, with global equipment deliveries expected to rebound steadily through 2029, and mining operations, driven by global resource extraction needs, are strong contributors. India’s record coal production, for instance, directly supports diesel demand for Heavy Earth Moving Machinery (HEMM).
Even the agricultural sector shows stable diesel demand, supported by mechanization trends and the preference for cost-effective diesel engines. Moreover, the expansion of data centers and concerns about grid reliability are boosting demand for diesel in backup power generation.
Regulatory shifts and alternative fuels: Shaping the future mix
While economic activity provides a strong foundation, regulatory pressures and the rise of alternative fuels are increasingly influencing the diesel market. Environmental regulations are intensifying across major markets, with commercial vehicle OEMs responding through advanced engine technologies and efficiency improvements. This pushes demand for diesel of higher fuel quality.
However, the penetration of LNG, hydrogen, and electrification in off-road and other diesel end-markets are creating headwinds. China, for example, is experiencing a structural shift in truck fuel usage from diesel to gas due to cost advantages. Similarly, stricter emission norms in India are making diesel vehicles more expensive, pushing consumers towards alternatives like hybrids, CNG, and electric vehicles. Railways and the agriculture sector are also gradually moving towards electrification in some regions.
Supply dynamics and market conditions: The refinery perspective
The supply side also plays a crucial role. Modest net global refining additions, particularly in 2025-2026, are limiting new diesel supply and supporting margins. Despite tepid demand projections, a net capacity growth of 2.6 mb/d in new refining capacity is expected globally by 2030, potentially leading to supply-demand imbalances. Elevated but volatile middle-distillate cracks indicate that diesel fundamentals remain tighter than most other products. Industry participants maintain cautious optimism, noting that gasoline and diesel demand have exceeded pre-pandemic levels and expect continued seasonal patterns.
The rest of this article is available to ADI Plus Essential subscribers. Enhanced subscribers also get a downloadable PDF of ADI’s global diesel demand forecasts segmented by region through 2045. For Enterprise subscribers, an additional data file is also available.
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