ADI assessed the feasibility of a 5,000-mtpd export-oriented methanol plant in Africa, modeling investment economics for grey and blue production pathways. The analysis integrated steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), and two-step reforming technologies with carbon capture retrofits to evaluate total capital requirements and internal rates of return. Uncertainty modeling addressed feedstock price volatility and the emerging use of methanol as a marine fuel and clean cooking alternative in Africa.
The client
Energy technology developer
The situation
A developer required a bankable assessment of investment returns and technology risks for a world-scale methanol project.
ADI’s contributions
Economic valuation modeling
ADI developed a customized investment model calculating NPV and IRR across six distinct price and capacity scenarios.
Technology pathway evaluation
The assessment recommended two-step reforming for world-scale capacity based on superior thermal and energy efficiency.
Supply and trade-flow analysis
Proprietary trade data identified gaps between Northeast Asian imports and MEA exports to optimize offtake planning.
CCUS integration strategy
ADI quantified the CAPEX premium and competitive impact of adding CCS units to achieve blue methanol specifications.
Key outcomes
- Provided a prioritized roadmap for technology selection and offtake strategies to mitigate natural gas price volatility.
More insights
Premium content
OCTG outlook after the Middle East conflict
Part of ADI Analytics’ ongoing coverage of the implications of the Iran conflict across oil & gas, LNG, refined products, and chemicals. I recently spoke at the 10th Annual OCTG & Line Pipe Forecast Summit about the Middle East conflict and its implications for oil, gas, OCTG, and line pipe markets. This builds on ADI […]
News
Newsletter: Lubricants beyond automotive & chemical M&A
In the October 2026 edition of the ADI Chemicals Newsletter, ADI examines how HF Sinclair, BP, and Saudi Aramco are shifting toward industrial, thermal-management, and specialty-fluid applications as engine-oil demand growth slows. Recent M&A includes Nippon Paint Holdings’ agreement to acquire AkzoNobel’s decorative paints business in Southeast Asia and Oceania, alongside Heidelberg Materials’ and CRH’s […]
Article
EU methane rule delay: A tactical retreat or climate setback?
The European Union (EU) Methane Regulation is known for its strict methane emissions transparency requirements for foreign oil and gas imports, and has driven methane emissions monitoring and reporting efforts, especially among oil and gas players serving the EU market. Under Article 28 of the EU Methane Regulation, importers are required to demonstrate that fossil […]