While diesel production in the Americas increased through the first half of 2026, output in Europe and Asia declined, increasing reliance on North American exports to help balance global supply. This comes at a time when middle distillate markets remain critical to freight, industrial, and commercial activity, making reliable diesel supply increasingly important for many import-dependent regions.
Key drivers behind shifting refinery output:
- Strong access to domestic crude has helped North American refiners keep utilization rates high and support diesel production.
- Higher crude and transportation costs have reduced refinery margins in many parts of Europe and Asia.
- Disruptions to key shipping routes have made it more difficult and costly for overseas refiners to secure feedstocks.
- Years of refinery closures have reduced Europe’s ability to increase diesel production when supply tightens.
- Weak industrial activity in several major economies has limited incentives for refiners outside North America to increase runs.
If these trends continue, North American refiners could capture a larger share of global middle distillate trade. Growing dependence on exports from the region may support utilization rates and diesel margins, particularly for refiners with strong access to export markets. At the same time, global diesel balances could become more sensitive to operational disruptions in North America, increasing the region’s influence on international product markets and pricing.
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