Ammonia and CCUS technology market assessment

This study examined the global ammonia (NH3) value chain and CO2​ conversion landscape, evaluating the technical maturity of steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), and electrolysis-based production. ADI analyzed the economics of NH3​ as a hydrogen carrier versus liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs), including the energy-intensive decomposition steps required for re-conversion. The work profiled emerging CO2​ conversion methods such as catalytic synthesis and mineralization for building materials, identifying high-margin platform molecules.

The client

Private equity firm

The situation

An investor needed to understand the commercial maturity and regulatory incentives driving the low-carbon ammonia market.

ADI’s contributions

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Hydrogen carrier benchmarking

ADI benchmarked unit shipping costs across distances and tonnages for NH3​, LH2​, and LOHCs to identify the low-cost leader.

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Product margin analysis

Analysis identified ethylene oxide and acrylic acid as high-value targets for CO2​ conversion based on projected margins.

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Regulatory landscape review

The assessment mapped policy frameworks, including 45Q tax credits and EU ETS, to identify the strongest regional incentives.

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Stakeholder landscape mapping

ADI profiled the top 10 ammonia producers and their partnerships with EPCs to reveal successful decarbonization models.

Key outcomes

  • Enabled portfolio prioritization by identifying high-margin CO2​ conversion products and the most economical hydrogen carriers.
Client Results
Unlike firms that provide recycled information, ADI delivers targeted data and real customer feedback. They focus exactly on what we care about rather than simply giving us what they think we want to hear.
Riley Hagan CEO, Ethanext

Industry experience

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