ADI performed a market-focused due diligence of a hydrogen distribution company to evaluate its positioning within the transportation sector in California. The work assessed low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit pricing volatility and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty FCEV trucks compared to battery and diesel alternatives.
The client
Private equity firm
The situation
Client required consulting support to assess the risks of a transaction involving a hydrogen distribution infrastructure company.
ADI’s contributions
Policy driver assessment
ADI inventoried state and federal incentives, deep-diving into CARB regulations and LCFS credit pricing forecasts.
TCO benchmarking
Quantitative analysis of FCEV heavy-duty truck economics against diesel and battery powertrains through 2030.
Supply-demand modeling
Primary research used to forecast hydrogen supply volumes by type (green, blue, grey) and delivery infrastructure needs.
OEM adoption analysis
Evaluation of heavy-duty OEM order books and deployment timelines to validate target company growth projections.
Key outcomes
- Provided a strategic investment roadmap based on policy drivers, FCEV adoption rates, and localized hydrogen supply-cost dynamics.
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