As the global oil and gas industry adapts to slower demand growth and increasing pressure to decarbonize, Africa is quietly reasserting itself as a frontier for upstream exploration. As seen in Exhibit 1, oil reserves in Africa have been concentrated in a few producers, particularly Libya, Nigeria, and Algeria.
Exhibit 1. Oil reserves by the top 10 African countries in 2024 (Billion barrels of oil equivalent).
While these mature producers continue to anchor the continent’s output, a new wave of discoveries and seismic campaigns is reshaping the exploration map. From Namibia’s Orange Basin to Angola’s Namibe Basin and the Ivory Coast’s deepwater blocks, Africa is becoming a focal point for operators seeking scalable, long-life reserves.
A shift toward frontier deepwater plays
The pivot toward frontier basins is driven by a combination of geological potential, improved seismic imaging, and favorable fiscal regimes. Deepwater plays, in particular, are drawing attention due to their ability to deliver large volumes with fewer wells and longer plateau production. This is especially attractive in a market where capital discipline and emissions intensity are under scrutiny.
However, entering new geographies requires more than just technical confidence. Companies must navigate complex regulatory environments, assess above-ground risks, identify credible local partners, and ensure alignment with their broader portfolio strategy. These are areas where firms often seek external expertise to accelerate decision-making and reduce uncertainty. ADI Analytics has supported clients in these areas through country briefs, policy and regulatory analysis, partner identification, and portfolio fit assessments.
Exploration highlights across Africa
Recent discoveries underscore the scale of opportunity:
- Namibia (Orange Basin): TotalEnergies’ Venus and Galp’s Mopane discoveries are undergoing appraisal. Rhino Resources and Azule Energy are drilling the Sagittarius-1X well. While reserve estimates are still being confirmed, early results suggest multi-billion-barrel potential.
- Angola (Namibe Basin): ExxonMobil is actively exploring Blocks 30, 44, and 45, with up to $15 billion committed through 2030.
- Ivory Coast (Baleine Field): Phase 2 is operational as of early 2025, producing 60,000 billion oil equivalent per day (boepd). Phase 3 is in planning, targeting 150,000 bopd.
- Senegal/Mauritania (GTA Project): The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project began operations in June 2025, with Phase 1 producing and exporting LNG.
- Nigeria (Bonga Expansion): Shell’s Bonga North project is underway, with first oil expected by 2027. Bonga Southwest Aparo is targeting FID in 2027.
As shown in Exhibit 2, these developments are expected to drive a modest recovery in African oil production from 7.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 to over 7.5 mbpd by 2028.
Exhibit 2. Historical and forecasted oil production in Africa through 2028 (Million barrels of oil equivalent).
Market structure: A consolidated landscape
Africa’s upstream sector remains highly consolidated. Five major players—TotalEnergies, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)—dominate exploration and production across the continent. These companies hold significant acreage and operate most of the large-scale projects, shaping the pace and direction of new developments. For new entrants or smaller independents, understanding the competitive landscape and identifying strategic partnership opportunities is essential. ADI Analytics has helped clients navigate this terrain through partner due diligence and strategic market entry support.
Namibia: Orange Basin breaks through
Namibia has emerged as one of the most exciting exploration stories in recent years. TotalEnergies’ Venus discovery and Shell’s Graff find confirmed a working petroleum system in the Orange Basin. Galp’s Mopane-1A appraisal well has validated light oil and gas-condensate in high-quality reservoirs, and a 3D seismic survey is underway. Rhino Resources and Azule Energy are drilling the Sagittarius-1X well in Block 2914A.
These developments are positioning Namibia as a future deepwater hub. ADI has supported clients in similar frontier markets through regulatory analysis, partner screening, and risk assessments.
Angola: Namibe and beyond
Angola is seeing renewed exploration interest, particularly in the underexplored Namibe Basin. ExxonMobil is leading efforts in Blocks 30, 44, and 45, backed by a long-term investment plan aligned with the country’s national production goals. The geological similarities to Brazil’s Santos and Campos basins—especially its pre-salt structures—make it a high-potential target.
ADI has helped clients assess portfolio fit and develop monetization strategies for deepwater assets in Angola and similar markets.
Nigeria: Bonga expansion and production outlook
Nigeria continues to face production challenges due to infrastructure constraints and security issues. However, Shell’s Bonga North project (110,000 bopd peak) is progressing, with first oil expected by 2027. Bonga Southwest Aparo (150,000 bopd peak) is targeting FID in 2027. These projects are critical to stabilizing Nigeria’s output.
ADI has supported clients in evaluating Nigerian assets through asset-level risk modeling and strategic fit analysis.
Ivory Coast: Baleine field scaling up
Ivory Coast’s Baleine field, operated by Eni, is now producing 60,000 boepd as of early 2025. Phase 3 is in planning and could triple output to 150,000 bopd and 200 million cubic feet/day of gas. The country’s stable political environment and investor-friendly fiscal terms make it an attractive destination for exploration capital.
ADI has provided clients with insights into regulatory risks, infrastructure readiness, and local content requirements in similar contexts.
Senegal and Mauritania: Gas-led growth
The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project, operated by BP and Kosmos Energy, began commercial operations in June 2025. The Gimi FLNG is now producing LNG, with four cargoes already exported. Phase 1 targets 2.4 mtpa, and Phase 2 could double capacity.
These developments are positioning the region as a future LNG hub. ADI has supported clients in designing gas monetization strategies across West Africa.
Libya: Political instability and production volatility
Libya holds Africa’s largest proven oil reserves—over 48 billion barrels—but remains a high-risk environment. While the government targets 2 mbpd, actual production remains closer to 1.2–1.5 mbpd due to political instability and operational disruptions.
For companies considering entry or re-engagement, a robust geopolitical risk framework is essential. ADI has worked with clients to develop such frameworks, enabling informed decisions in volatile markets.
Exploration in context: Slower demand, higher bar
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to plateau around 105.5 mbpd by 2030, with annual growth slowing significantly. This means new exploration plays must compete not just on volume, but on cost, emissions profile, and strategic fit.
Africa’s frontier basins offer a compelling value proposition: large-scale potential, improving geological data, and governments eager to attract investment. However, success will depend on disciplined capital allocation, efficient development models, and alignment with long-term energy transition goals.
Conclusion
Africa is entering a new phase in its upstream evolution. From Namibia’s Orange Basin to Angola’s Namibe Basin, Ivory Coast’s deepwater blocks, and Senegal’s gas-rich offshore, the continent is home to some of the most promising exploration plays globally. While the macro environment is more selective, the geological fundamentals and improving investment climate make Africa a key region to watch in the next exploration cycle.
For operators with a long-term view and appetite for frontier risk, Africa offers a rare combination of scale, upside, and strategic relevance. And for those navigating the complexities of new market entry, ADI Analytics brings deep experience in regulatory analysis, partner due diligence, risk assessment, and monetization strategy—helping clients unlock value in Africa’s next wave of exploration.
– Uday Turaga
About ADI Analytics
ADI is a prestigious, boutique consulting firm specializing in oil and gas, energy, and chemicals since 2009. We bring deep expertise in a broad range of markets where we support Fortune 500, mid-sized and early-stage companies, and investors with consulting services, research reports, and data and analytics, with the goal of delivering actionable outcomes to help our clients achieve tangible results.
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