Global natural gas and LNG market experienced significant volatility in the past couple of years due to supply constraints, lack of new capacity additions, unplanned outages, and geopolitical tensions. The market was relatively stable in 2024 due to high demand in Asia Pacific and Europe. As the world prioritizes energy security and cost-competitive low-carbon energy, we expect global natural gas and LNG demand to grow further. Additionally, little or no LNG supply growth is expected this year outside of North America. ADI expects the global demand growth coupled with tighter supply may result in high gas and LNG prices globally in 2025.
- Global gas demand grew 2.8% to ~405 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2024, representing ~40% of total energy demand growth. Global gas demand is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025.
- Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand grew 3.0% to ~413 million tons in 2024 and is expected to see a similar growth of 2.9% to 3.5% to reach 425 to 427 million tons in 2025.
- Asia Pacific is expected to continue to drive global LNG demand through 2025 led by China and India. China’s LNG imports rose by ~10% through August 2024 and are expected to grow by ~15% in 2025. India’s LNG imports grew ~19% in 2024 to reach ~27 mtpy and we expect this to continue growing at 4% to 8% in 2025.
- European Union storage levels dropped to 82% in the first week of December 2024, a 15% decline from the peak seen in November, due to greater-than-expected withdrawals in November. A colder winter is anticipated and this may further exacerbate the tight supply situation in EU.
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