Battery recycling market outlook and capacity analysis

ADI built a bottom‑up lithium‑ion battery recycling outlook by modeling installed base growth, chemistry mix, scrap rates, and collection assumptions. Supply availability, black‑mass generation, and refining capacity were stress‑tested against utilization and execution risk. Uncertainty around LFP adoption and recoverable value was explicitly evaluated.

The client

Energy transition investment platform

The situation

Recycling economics unclear under fast‑changing chemistries

ADI’s contributions

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Installed base flow modeling

ADI modeled battery volumes by region, application, and chemistry.

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Capacity probability weighting

Projects were filtered by FID status and construction progress.

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Chemistry risk exposure

Lower value recovery from LFP was quantified.

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Expert interview triangulation

Recyclers, OEMs, and refiners validated assumptions.

Key outcomes

  • Clarified capacity gaps and long‑term feedstock availability
Client Results
ADI was able to help us in an area that is very important as a technology developer: knowing what the real odds of success would be for a particular technology.
Brian Weeks Director, Gas Technology Institute

Industry experience

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