Part of ADI Analytics’ ongoing coverage of the implications of the Iran conflict across oil & gas, LNG, refined products, and chemicals.
Qatar’s LNG shutdown is being assessed as if it were a temporary shock. It is not. Based on ADI’s primary research, including interviews with LNG operators in the Middle East, EPC contractors, technology licensor, and equipment suppliers alongside our experience with best practices in LNG operational excellence, the disruption from the conflict in Iran (see our prior posts for impact on oil and natural gas and LNG) is more structural than cyclical. Some supply will return relatively quickly, but the damaged capacity will stay offline for years, and past LNG disruptions suggest recovery will be slower and more constrained than early signals imply (see Exhibit 1). We expand further in the following five key takeaways:
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