ADI analyzed the transition from domestic gas production to LNG imports in the Philippines to address energy security and decarbonization goals. The study benchmarked the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for gas-fired combined-cycle plants against coal-based generation, accounting for the environmental costs of emissions. Modeled delivered ex-ship (DES) costs from U.S. export hubs to demonstrate the viability of Henry Hub-indexed pricing for regional price stability.
The client
International development agency
The situation
Approaching depletion of domestic gas reserves creating a critical need for regasification infrastructure and fuel procurement strategies.
ADI’s contributions
Comparative LCOE modeling
ADI demonstrated that gas-based power generation offers significantly lower lifecycle costs than coal when capture technologies are required.
Pricing indexation analysis
Comparison of oil-linked versus gas-linked pricing provided a roadmap for mitigating energy price volatility in the Philippines.
Infrastructure feasibility assessment
Evaluation of FSRU versus onshore terminal options identified the most flexible and capital-efficient path for new importers.
Environmental impact analysis
Quantification of CO2 and nitrous oxide reductions supported the alignment of energy policy with Paris Agreement commitments.
Key outcomes
- Strategic framework for prioritizing gas-fired power generation to complement variable renewable energy and reduce national carbon intensity.
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