ADI assessed the feasibility of a 5,000-mtpd export-oriented methanol plant in Africa, modeling investment economics for grey and blue production pathways. The analysis integrated steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), and two-step reforming technologies with carbon capture retrofits to evaluate total capital requirements and internal rates of return. Uncertainty modeling addressed feedstock price volatility and the emerging use of methanol as a marine fuel and clean cooking alternative in Africa.
The client
Energy technology developer
The situation
A developer required a bankable assessment of investment returns and technology risks for a world-scale methanol project.
ADI’s contributions
Economic valuation modeling
ADI developed a customized investment model calculating NPV and IRR across six distinct price and capacity scenarios.
Technology pathway evaluation
The assessment recommended two-step reforming for world-scale capacity based on superior thermal and energy efficiency.
Supply and trade-flow analysis
Proprietary trade data identified gaps between Northeast Asian imports and MEA exports to optimize offtake planning.
CCUS integration strategy
ADI quantified the CAPEX premium and competitive impact of adding CCS units to achieve blue methanol specifications.
Key outcomes
- Provided a prioritized roadmap for technology selection and offtake strategies to mitigate natural gas price volatility.
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