At the 2023 FlexPO+ (now incorporated into the ADI Forum), Victor Toffoli, Senior Analyst, ADI Analytics, analyzed the polypropylene market. He discussed demand trends, supply capacity, recycling initiatives, and the potential impact of electric vehicles on the industry. He said that the polyolefin market anticipated healthy growth through 2025, with polypropylene (PP) leading. This growth, alongside demand for polypropylene, was expected to influence the expansion of ethylene driven by automotive applications, especially in EVs. HDPE was projected for growth due to infrastructure projects, while POE/POP saw strong demand in solar encapsulants. Conversely, LDPE and LLDPE growth would be minimal due to single-use plastic bans. Ethylene capacity was set to increase significantly by 2030. China and the Middle East would account for a large percentage of new projects, primarily utilizing steam cracking technology.
Recycled HDPE was expected to significantly cannibalize virgin HDPE demand. This was largely due to its high property retention after recycling. The increasing adoption of electric vehicles would boost polypropylene demand. This was because lightweighting was becoming crucial for heavier EVs. Furthermore, China was poised to transform from a net importer to a net exporter of polypropylene by 2030. This shift, coupled with polypropylene demand and ethylene expansion, would intensify global competition. Meanwhile, Europe’s role as an exporter was expected to diminish due to capacity closures and increased Chinese self-sufficiency.
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