Supported National Oil Company in Asia conduct a comprehensive study of the regional natural gas market with emphasis on understanding price elasticity and natural gas affordability across various end-use market segments. Key contributions included the following:
- Developed a natural gas price elasticity and affordability model including …
- … Estimation and inclusion of cost structures for various gas consumer segments such as steel, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and power generation, existing plant capacity, prices for end-products, trade and customer profile, e.g., domestic demand vs. exports, future expansions with existing capacity, and new capacity additions
- Modeled supply of alternative fuels and potential of fuel switching based on costs, economics, logistics, and infrastructure for existing and new capacity additions likely from new export-oriented industrial manufacturing zones incentivized by the government
- Framed multiple scenarios to assess gas affordability based on various macroeconomic scenarios, gas and liquid fuel prices, subsidies and phase-outs, energy efficiency improvements / regulations, consumer / industrial inflation, industrial demand, and price / economic reforms
- Compiled and reviewed all regulations impacting natural gas markets in the region including impact of deregulation and related policy initiatives
- Interviewed over 30 existing and prospective gas buyers / customers in multiple categories to assess gas price affordability and switching likelihood and identify key barriers and …
- … Gather granular intelligence at the local level by customer type to validate economic and market size modeling efforts
- Build an in-depth picture of the gas supply logistics including customer needs and pain points, fuel procurement patterns (i.e. seasonality, volume flexibility, price indexing interest, payment terms, and contract types including ship-or-pay, take-or-pay)
- Developed a database of 300+ energy-intensive industrial gas customers and profiled top 30 players from secondary and primary research