ADI Analytics partnered with a national oil company to develop a robust suite of biofuel cost and economic models. This collaborative project empowered the client to make strategic biofuel investment decisions with greater confidence. Our contributions included the following:
- Scenario definition: Our team meticulously defined a range of cases and scenarios encompassing diverse biofuels and renewable fuels. Each scenario was carefully crafted to be evaluated using the most appropriate economic models from our toolkit.
- Model development and customization: We went beyond generic solutions. We developed and customized over five unique models specifically designed to assess the defined scenarios. These models incorporated the complexities of various biofuel policy outcomes, ensuring a nuanced understanding of potential impacts.
- Policy impact analysis: We simulated the effects of different policy and regulatory landscapes on renewable fuels by running the models under a variety of conditions. This analysis provided the client with valuable insights into how policy changes could influence the economic viability of renewable fuel production.
- Uncertainty and risk assessment: Recognizing the inherent uncertainties in the energy sector, we conducted a comprehensive uncertainty and risk analysis. This involved gathering key input data from established literature and consultations with industry experts.
- Monte Carlo simulations: To account for the natural fluctuations associated with production costs, product pricing, and policy incentives, we employed Monte Carlo simulations. This robust methodology allowed us to model uncertainties and simulate the costs and economics of various biofuels with greater accuracy.
By leveraging this comprehensive modeling approach, ADI Analytics provided the national oil company with a powerful set of tools to:
- Evaluate the economic feasibility of various biofuel investment opportunities.
- Optimize their biofuel portfolio to align with changing market conditions and policy landscapes.
- Make strategic decisions that ensure their long-term success in the evolving biofuels market.
