Supported a leading ethanol producer with an investor-focused study evaluating risks to North American biofuel policy and demand. Key contributions included:
- Quantified Potential Risks to Credit Intensity (CI) Frameworks (LCFS, CFR): Analyzed the impact of production capacity limitations and rapid CI target increases on profitability.
- Evaluated Risks Associated with Volume-Driven Frameworks (RFS): Assessed the financial implications of policy changes or waivers impacting biofuel blending mandates.
- Production Capacity Creep Analysis: Identified the risk of exceeding feedstock production capacity due to rising demand and its potential impact on production costs.
- Feedstock Price Setting Mechanisms: Evaluated how alternative uses and feedstock switching could affect feedstock prices and overall production economics.
- Feedstock Adequacy Assessment: Modeled different scenarios to assess if feedstock supply can meet biofuel production demands under various market conditions.
- Emerging Alternative Feedstocks: Examined the potential timeline and economic impact of new feedstocks like camelina on the industry landscape.
- Market Behavior Shifts Due to Stricter CI Benchmarks: Analyzed how stricter CI benchmarks could lead to certain feedstocks becoming economically unviable for biofuel production.
- Uneconomic Ethanol/Renewable Diesel: Evaluated the risk of specific feedstock-derived biofuels becoming unprofitable as CI requirements tighten, impacting the producer’s portfolio.
