Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have been commercially available since the late 1800s when Carl Benz patented the now historic Benz Patent Motor Car, model no. 1, and for over 100 years they have been integral to transportation around the world. But now with the world advancing with energy transition, we are seeing steps towards phasing out of internal combustion engines.
Several countries and states have already set out commitments to phase out and even completely remove ICE cars from streets. In Exhibit 1, we see the three types of bans coming into effect in the coming years announced at the time of the publication of this blog.
The first type of ICE car ban we identify is a mandate for “100% EV Sales”, meaning that from the target year onwards, the country will only allow sales of electric vehicles (EVs). This means that ICE cars will still be allowed on the roads, however, all new cars on the market will be exclusively electric vehicles. Currently this has been mandated in the United Kingdom, China, and Japan all with the target year of 2035.
The second type of ICE car ban is the mandate for “100% ZEV sales”, which is the most popular option. With this ban the country will continue to allow ICE cars on the roads but all new vehicles sold will need to be considered “zero emission vehicles”. This grouping includes electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and in some cases certain plug-in hybrid electric vehicle models.
The ban is set to first come into effect in Norway in 2025, with several countries following suit in 2030 and the remaining EU countries in 2035. It is worth noting that as of the date of this publication, California, has committed to the ban as of 2035, and since 17 states have adopted California’s Low-Emission Vehicles regulations, they are set to impose the ban also. However, as of now only four states have announced the ban, i.e. New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington, and there has been a lot of pushback from some of the remaining 13 states.
The third and final ICE car ban that has been announced is the “100% ZEV stock” ban, which is currently only set to be introduced in Sri Lanka and will result in the complete ban of sales and use of ICE cars in the country. This means that by The third and final ICE car ban that has been announced is the mandate for “100% ZEV stock”, which is currently only set to be introduced in Sri Lanka and will result in the complete ban of sales and use of ICE cars in the country. This means that by 2040 the goal is that every vehicle on Sri Lankan roads will be a zero-emissions vehicle. The work to implement this ban has already started with proposed tax cuts on electric vehicle imports and government vehicles are set to adhere to the ban by 2025.
ADI Analytics is closely following global energy transition and trends. Reach out to learn more about ADI’s energy transition research and consulting services.
– Victor Toffoli
